Bitcoin’s 2026 Outlook: Bridging the Performance Gap with Traditional Assets
As 2025 draws to a close, market intelligence firm Santiment highlights a notable divergence in performance across major asset classes. Following a significant pullback in November, Bitcoin (BTC) finds itself trailing both gold and the S&P 500. While gold has appreciated by 9% and the S&P 500 by 1% since early November, Bitcoin has experienced a roughly 20% decline, trading near $88,000 as of Wednesday, December 30, 2025. This disparity has contributed to a quieter cryptocurrency market, even as traditional sectors show modest signs of recovery.
Unpacking Whale Accumulation Signals
Santiment’s on-chain data reveals a nuanced picture of investor behavior, particularly among different wallet sizes. The latter half of 2025 saw smaller wallets actively accumulating Bitcoin. In contrast, larger wallets, often referred to as “whales,” largely maintained their positions before initiating sales after Bitcoin reached an all-time high in October.
Given their substantial influence on market dynamics, the cautious stance adopted by large holders has exerted downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price. Historically, a significant market trend reversal is often preceded by a shift where major holders begin aggressive buying while retail investors moderate their activity. However, this critical condition has not yet fully materialized, keeping market participants on alert.
📊 The correlation between Bitcoin & crypto compared to other major sectors is still lagging behind. Since November began, price performances are:
🥇 Gold: +9% 🏦 S&P 500: +1% 🪙 Bitcoin: -20%
🤞 Heading to 2026, there will remain an opportunity for crypto to play “catch up”. pic.twitter.com/FW8JaQboTV
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) December 30, 2025
Mixed Signals from On-Chain Data
Further examination of Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics presents a complex, albeit stabilizing, scenario. Long-term holders, for instance, reduced their Bitcoin holdings from 14.8 million coins in mid-July to 14.3 million by December but have since paused further selling.
While active Bitcoin addresses saw a 5.51% increase over the last 24 hours, the volume of transactions simultaneously declined by almost 30% within the same period. This discrepancy suggests a rising level of market observation and interest, yet a hesitation to commit capital, indicating that a broad return to active trading has not yet taken hold.
Expert Perspectives on Market Rotation
Prominent figures in the financial and crypto sectors are weighing in on the current market environment and potential future shifts.
Garrett Jin, former head of the BitForex exchange, posits that traders are already reallocating capital, emphasizing the natural flow of funds towards emerging opportunities. Jin’s perspective underscores the timeless investment principle of “selling high and buying low,” suggesting that capital mobility is a constant in dynamic markets.
Echoing this sentiment, analyst CyrilXBT characterizes the present market as a “late-cycle positioning” phase, anticipating a potential rotation of liquidity. In this scenario, traditional safe havens like gold could cool off, while Bitcoin might take the lead, with other cryptocurrencies following suit.
Bitcoin right now continues to look just like the 2016-2017 period,
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