As 2025 draws to a close, the cryptocurrency market finds itself at a pivotal juncture. Investors are grappling with persistent volatility and a notable downturn in asset values, prompting a critical re-evaluation of long-held market theories. The once-unquestioned belief in the predictable four-year crypto market cycle is now facing intense scrutiny amidst a challenging economic landscape.
Bitcoin (BTC), the leading digital asset, has experienced a significant decline, shedding 30% from its early October peak and trading below its yearly opening price of $93,500. This sustained pressure has ignited a debate among market participants: Has the fundamental rhythm of the crypto market shifted, or is this merely a temporary deviation?
Deconstructing the Four-Year Crypto Cycle: More Than Just a Metronome
The concept of a four-year cycle has long served as a foundational tenet for many crypto investors, guiding their strategies and expectations. However, its perceived infallibility is now being challenged.
Pseudonymous market observer “Plur” offers a compelling perspective, arguing that the cycle is not an immutable law of nature but rather a dynamic, evolving phenomenon. Plur posits that its influence stems from a unique form of collective agreement:
“There is no magical rule of nature stating price must go up and down on this fixed cadence.”
Instead, the cycle functions as a “memetic consensus” – an implicit understanding and coordinated behavior among participants. This collective action, driven by shared belief, effectively creates a self-fulfilling prophecy, drawing in external capital and reinforcing the pattern.
Plur elaborates on this mechanism:
- It acts as an “egregore-as-cartel,” where a large, loosely connected group of individuals collectively agrees to navigate market highs and lows in unison.
- A community member likened this phenomenon to “faith in God: everyone believes in it, but no one has ever seen it,” unders
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