Bitcoin has been navigating a period of significant consolidation since late November, exhibiting a struggle for definitive directional momentum. Following an inability to sustain upward trajectory past the October 2025 peak, the premier cryptocurrency has settled into a broad trading range, indicative of heightened investor uncertainty. While some market participants interpret this current pause as a foundational phase for future appreciation, others advocate for caution, drawing parallels with historical bear market behaviors to contextualize the present.
Evaluating Bitcoin’s Current Correction: A Historical Perspective
According to comprehensive analysis by industry expert Axel Adler, the prevailing drawdown in Bitcoin’s value from its October high remains notably shallow when viewed through a historical lens. A detailed examination of Bitcoin Bear Market Correction Drawdowns, spanning cycles since 2011, underscores the unique characteristics of the current market phase.
In the ongoing 2025+ cycle, the observed drawdown currently stands at approximately -27%, with the maximum correction recorded at around -33%.
This contrasts sharply with previous bear markets, which experienced significantly more pronounced declines:
- The 2011 cycle witnessed a dramatic collapse of -92%.
- Both the 2013–2015 and 2017–2018 cycles registered drawdowns approaching -82%.
- The more recent 2021–2022 bear market bottomed out at approximately -75%.
This comparative resilience could signal a fundamental shift in Bitcoin’s market dynamics. The increasing integration of spot ETFs and the influx of institutional capital may be contributing to a dampening effect on volatility, thereby mitigating the severity of market corrections. However, Adler prudently advises that the current bear phase is still in its nascent stages. Consequently, it is premature to definitively conclude that Bitcoin has entered a new market paradigm where deep drawdowns are no longer an inherent part of its cyclical behavior.
Bitcoin Still Trades Above Long-Term On-Chain Fair Value
Further insights into Bitcoin’s market positioning are provided by the Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) model, as highlighted by Adler. CVDD is a robust long-term on-chain valuation framework that tracks periods when older, long-held coins are moved or “destroyed.” Historically, such activity has been a reliable indicator of major market transitions and the formation of macro bottoms.
The CVDD chart illustrates Bitcoin’s price in relation to several key valuation bands, including the foundational CVDD level and its 5x and 10x multiples. Presently, Bitcoin is trading around $91,000, positioning it roughly 2x above the base CVDD, which is currently estimated
About The Author
