The Evolving Landscape of Bitcoin’s Bull Run: A Multi-Year Outlook
The traditional four-year crypto market cycle, long a cornerstone of investor expectations, is facing significant re-evaluation. Contrary to the prevailing sentiment that this cycle is defunct, experts at Bull Theory assert that the Bitcoin bull run is merely delayed, poised for an extended trajectory that could span through 2026 and into 2027.
Beyond the Four-Year Cycle: A Shift in Market Dynamics
For a decade, Bitcoin’s price movements were often attributed primarily to its Halving events. However, a deeper analysis reveals that these significant shifts were more profoundly influenced by fluctuations in global liquidity rather than solely by the programmatic supply reductions.
Analysts highlight a weakening adherence to a strict four-year cycle, suggesting that macroeconomic forces are now the dominant drivers shaping market trends.
Global Liquidity: The Primary Catalyst
The current market environment is characterized by robust liquidity, signaling a strong foundation for future growth. Several key indicators underscore this:
- Persistent Stablecoin Liquidity: Despite recent market fluctuations, stablecoin liquidity remains notably high. This indicates that substantial capital from larger investors is still actively engaged in the market, ready to deploy once optimal macroeconomic conditions emerge.
- U.S. Treasury Policies: Pivotal policy shifts within the U.S. Treasury are set to inject significant capital. While recent buybacks are noteworthy, the more impactful factor is the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance, currently exceeding $940 billion—nearly $90 billion above its customary range. This surplus cash is expected to flow back into the financial system, enhancing financing conditions and channeling liquidity towards risk assets.
- International Quantitative Easing: A synchronized global effort to expand liquidity is underway:
- China has been consistently injecting liquidity for several months.
- Japan recently unveiled a substantial $135 billion stimulus package, alongside initiatives to streamline cryptocurrency regulations.
- Canada is actively moving towards an easing of its monetary policy.
- The
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