Bitcoin is showing signs of behaving less like a high-growth technology trade and more like a macro asset, as its relationship with gold strengthens while its correlation with equities weakens.
The OG cryptocurrency’s three-month rolling correlation with gold has reached its highest level since 2020, according to Bitwise Head of Research André Dragosch.
The firm also found that its correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has fallen to a one-year low, while its relationship with the S&P 500 also moved toward zero in August. Bitcoin also remained mostly negatively correlated with the US Dollar Index during the period.
The move followed a repricing in bond markets, with long-term Treasury yields rising before US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent intervened to buy more long-dated government bonds.
Bitcoin gained 22.4% in the week following the changes, its strongest weekly gain since March 2024. Gold, meanwhile, rose about 5%, while stocks fell.
The last time Bitcoin and gold moved this closely was in 2020, when governments and central banks responded to the COVID-19 crisis with fiscal and monetary changes.
Today’s context is different, but concerns about government debt, long-term yields, and the purchasing power of fiat currencies are again affecting investor behavior.
Taken together, those moves suggest that the forces driving Bitcoin’s price are changing, with macro and hard-asset considerations playing a larger role alongside the risk appetite that has historically dominated its trading.
A Different Pool of Capital
The shift matters because, for most of its history, Bitcoin has traded as a risk asset, with the cryptocurrency experiencing large drawdowns, high volatility, and a strong relationship with technology stocks that make it sensitive to changes in risk appetite and financial conditions.
But Dragosch says this may be changing as investors are looking at Bitcoin more and more through the lens of monetary debasement. When governments run persistent deficits and debt rises, markets can begin to price the risk that currencies will lose purchasing power over time, which can increase demand for scarce assets like gold and Bitcoin.
He added that Bitcoin’s first 15 years were mostly shaped by crypto-native investors and risk-seeking capital. Its next phase, however, could have investors benchmarking it more against gold and other hard assets.
That would put Bitcoin in competition for a different pool of capital. Gold is a roughly $30 trillion market held by central banks, sovereigns, and institutional investors, far larger than the one that has historically driven the digital asset’s price discovery.
A Different Buyer Could Change How Bitcoin Trades
If Bitcoin begins attracting more capital from investors treating it as a hard-asset hedge, the marginal buyer could also behave differently. Investors holding it as a leveraged risk position may be more inclined to reduce exposure when volatility rises, or liquidity decreases. On the other hand, those who use it as a hedge against currency debasement might have longer holding periods and different incentives during market stress.
However, the current situation doesn’t mean Bitcoin has permanently decoupled from equities. Glassnode said that previous periods of Bitcoin-equity divergence during sovereign bond selloffs have mostly been short-lived.
Still, the changing correlations show an early sign that the forces setting Bitcoin’s price might be becoming more than a technology trade. If more capital begins treating the cryptocurrency as a hard-asset hedge, the change could eventually show up not just in correlations, but in turnover, leverage, and the depth of liquidity available when markets are under pressure.
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