The recent performance of Solana (SOL) in the cryptocurrency market has presented a complex picture for investors. Following an impressive surge to an all-time high near the $293 mark in January, the digital asset’s momentum swiftly dissipated, ushering in a protracted period of decline that has persisted for several months.
While many market observers have attributed this sustained weakness to a broader “risk-off” sentiment pervasive across the crypto landscape, a more granular examination of on-chain data by crypto analyst Ardi suggests a deeper narrative. This analysis indicates that the foundational shifts contributing to Solana’s downturn were in motion well before its January peak, fundamentally linked to the strategic positioning of various market participants.
On-Chain Insights: Unpacking Solana’s Price Dynamics
Distribution Preceded The Peak
Contrary to the perception that the January all-time high marked the genesis of a new growth phase, Ardi’s research reveals it was, in fact, the culmination of a significant distribution cycle. Solana had already established a lower high around $247 in September, relative to its January 19 peak of $293. Crucially, selling pressure from large holders began to intensify months earlier, preceding October, indicating a calculated exit strategy long before the price reached its ultimate zenith.
This perspective reframes the January surge not as a breakout into new territory, but as the final flourish of an extended rally. Post-January, Solana’s price action consistently formed lower highs, with subsequent recovery attempts failing to gather sufficient strength to challenge its previous record.
Interestingly, Solana’s inability to establish new all-time highs stood in contrast to other major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and BNB, which managed to reach fresh peaks during the same period.
Divergent Investor Behavior
A striking aspect of the on-chain data is the clear divergence in activity between different investor cohorts:
- Retail Wallets:
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